Global Export Expectations for 2022

2021 was a confusing year for global trade. While there were concerns about the impact of the pandemic on global trade, the ex-im (exports and imports) took off in early 2021 as consumers got back to markets to show the power again. Global demand was so intensive that, by the 3rd quarter, a new record was set as world trade value hit USD 5.6 trillion, according to the UN. 

However, endless COVID mutations, panic, labor shortages, transportation woes, an energy crisis, political tenses, and supply chain roadblocks remained active even for the year 2022. The effects of the above factors are already visible through inflationary trends affecting economic activity globally. 

Nevertheless, there still are forecasts of solid trade growth in the second half of 2022. Statista estimates global merchandise trade volume should rise by 4.7% in 2022. Likewise, IHS Markit asserts that global trade value should grow by 4.3% in 2022. While these figures are far behind the 10.8% recorded in 2021, they’re better than the -5.3% recorded in 2020.

Economic experts advise some opportunities and challenges for the export business in 2022

 

Five opportunities for exporters in 2022

  1. Reorganized supply chains
  2. Increased uptake in e-commerce selling
  3. New ASEAN trade agreement
  4. EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement
  5. Surging global trade

 

Five challenges exporters may face in 2022

  1. Infrastructure problems
  2. Access to credit
  3. Supply chain constraints 
  4. Global inflationary trend 
  5. COVID-19

 

References:

https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres21_e/pr889_e.htm

https://unctad.org/news/global-trade-goods-hits-all-time-quarterly-high-56-trillion

https://theconversation.com/world-economy-in-2022-the-big-factors-to-watch-closely-174350

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1280703/trade-volume-forecast-worldwide/

https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/Global-Trade-Outlook-2022.html

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/wtr21_e/00_wtr21_e.pdf

https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/smefinance

https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-2022/

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